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Yesterday saw the G7 summit in France, where Trump signed the MOU with Iran a day early. The text of the deal has now also been released, with the key points below - An end to conflict on all fronts - The text in the deal states the 'US, Iran and all allies' and says conflict will end on 'all fronts'. This by definition will include Lebanon. Respect for Internal Affairs - Both have agreed that neither country will interfere with the other's internal affairs. An extendable 60-

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is still due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The one notable news item on the deal is that it will allow oil to be exported from Tehran as soon as the deal is signed, giving Iran extra incentive to sign and putting some immediate downward pressure on oil prices. The crack in the armour for optimism around the deal seems to be Lebanon. Israeli officials yesterday said troops would remain in Lebanon and stated 'Trump's agreement does

Yesterday saw further confirmation of the deal between the US and Iran, with the deal set to be formally signed on Friday in Switzerland. The broad details are reported to be a 60-day agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, halt hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, release around $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and waive oil sanctions. Further nuclear discussions will then follow later. The market is treating the deal as done, with the reaction over the weekend a

Geopolitics After three and a half months of fighting and countless false dawns during negotiations, it was announced over the weekend that a deal has been reached between the US and Iran. This has been confirmed by President Trump, by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and by the Pakistani PM Sharif, who had been mediating the discussions. The deal is set to be formally signed on the 19th of June and is reported to include Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz wit

Geopolitics What a difference a day makes. At the start of the day yesterday, we were expecting further escalation in Iran. We then had a social media post from Donald Trump where he advised he would be hitting Iran "very hard tonight" and that the US would be taking Kharg Island, a key facility that 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through. This most likely would have involved boots on the ground and would have been a significant escalation. Markets were preparing themselves f

Geopolitics Yesterday saw further escalation in Iran that proved to be the dominant driver for the day. The US struck military targets in Iran as Trump warned that Iran will "pay the price" for not agreeing to a peace deal sooner. This was a markedly different tone from some previous comments, especially when followed up with action by the US military. The Iranians countered the strikes with their own, further jeopardizing what is still technically a ceasefire between the two

Geopolitics As has been the case with the Iran conflict countless times, sentiment shifted as the de-escalation optimism on Monday was unwound yesterday. A US helicopter was shot down in the area by an Iranian drone, which led to the US confirming it had launched strikes against Iranian targets in what it called a "proportional response." Iran then advised it had responded in kind, with attacks on US bases in the region as well as reports of an attack on Kuwaiti forces. The c

Geopolitics After a weekend of escalation, yesterday saw some calming and some moves in the opposite direction. Both Iran and Israel have confirmed they have stopped attacks on each other, but both have also warned of further and more intense strikes if the ceasefire is broken again. The whipsaw of escalation and de-escalation continues on as it has done since the ceasefire was originally agreed. It is likely to continue this way until a deal is eventually signed and the host

Geopolitics The peace negotiations in Iran took a clear step back over the weekend, as we saw new strikes from both the US and Iran, Israel ordering troops deeper into Lebanon and - possibly most importantly - Hezbollah rejecting the US-brokered deal with Israel. As Iran has consistently stated there also needs to be a ceasefire in Lebanon to end the war, the rejection undermines the peace efforts overall significantly. On top of the escalations, Iran seems to be expanding it

Geopolitics We saw another day yesterday where the pattern of strikes and talks continued. There were 'defensive strikes' in southern Iran, while the US was claiming that a deal could still be reached over the weekend. Iranian President Pezeshkian reportedly confirmed no deal would be confirmed without the approval of Supreme Leader Khamenei, a potential roadblock as he has issued directives in the past confirming he is not willing to surrender Iran's enriched uranium. This r

Geopolitics There were new but limited strikes in Iran yesterday, with the US launching strikes against Iran and Iran retaliating by launching strikes against Kuwait. Trump and his team are still claiming a deal could be reached as soon as this weekend, while also claiming Iran had agreed not to have nuclear weapons before noting "they can change their mind." This two-sided commentary and conflicting news reports added uncertainty to the overall picture, causing further rises

Geopolitics Tuesday did not bring a breakthrough in talks, and the deal between the US and Iran remains in discussions. The main talking points remain the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, which have not changed since the beginning of the negotiations. The markets are still reading this as a delay in getting the deal signed, rather than increased uncertainty that the deal may not be signed. This keeps the asymmetric risk between a deal and a breakdown the case; a m

Geopolitics There was no deal announced yesterday, but there did seem to be some signs of slow progress. Trump reportedly requested changes to the draft MoU, including changes related to the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of enriched uranium. The key implication here is that the text was not rejected outright by Trump, but instead amended - the deal is being refined, not thrown out. The hope is that this means we are edging closer to an agreement between the two parties, bu

Geopolitics There was no deal signed over the weekend, despite the news we had last week that an MoU had been reached. Trump had a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House on Friday, but came out of it without announcing a final decision despite hinting otherwise beforehand. On Truth Social, he then demanded that Iran must agree to never have a nuclear weapon, as well as that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted traffic. The markets have lar

Geopolitics Yesterday was a perfect illustration of the contradictions we have seen over the past few weeks - genuine diplomatic progress and military escalation within the same 24 hours. News broke yesterday that a tentative deal had been agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and to launch talks on Iran's nuclear program. This is now with President Trump, who has not yet signed off on the deal, noting that he would like a few days to think about it. It has also been note

Geopolitics There were strikes overnight from the US on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas, a port city on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC then claimed that they had struck a US air base early this morning, though the location was not disclosed. These actions are a meaningful escalation and a continuation from the US strike on Monday, putting the ceasefire and peace negotiations under serious threat. The strikes come after comments from Trump yesterday that Iran is "runnin

Geopolitics The negotiations in Iran continued, but we also saw some contradictory posts and concerning news that have dampened optimism of an imminent deal. President Trump posted that negotiations are "proceeding nicely", then also commented "It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all". Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also commented that any deal would take several days to complete, as there are still unresolved issues to be discussed. Further to this, there

Geopolitics Over the weekend talks continued between the US and Iran, with Trump announcing that the deal was 'largely negotiated'. He also confirmed that the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz would remain in effect until an agreement is reached. The broad consensus is that the deal is expected to unfold in two stages, the first to agree to a ceasefire extension and to re-open the Strait, before the second stage to focus on other issues, with the nuclear issue first and foremo

Geopolitics The biggest news of the day was the continued negotiations between the US and Iran, with comments from both sides affecting the market. From Iran, we received reports that a directive was issued from the Iranian Supreme Leader that enriched uranium must remain in the country, one of the USA's red lines that it has not yet been willing to cross. We also heard from Trump that he was prepared to wait a few days for Iran to come to the 'right answer', while also cauti

Geopolitics We saw announcements from the US yesterday that a potential deal between the US and Iran could potentially be in its final stages, paving the way for a genuine end to the conflict and thus a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports from the area suggest there have been concessions on both sides, a possibly crucial development after weeks of neither side willing to give up any ground. Brent Crude Oil fell on the news from $112 to $107, a fall of over 5% on the da