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Yesterday saw the release of June's CPI prints, which were the first to capture the falling oil prices after the MOU was signed in Iran last month. As expected, inflation fell, but markets were surprised by the size of the fall. CPI y/y fell to 3.5% against an expected 3.8%, CPI m/m was -0.4% against an expected -0.1%, Core CPI y/y was 2.6% against an expected 2.8%, and Core CPI m/m was 0.0% against an expected 0.2%. As a result, all measures of CPI showed a larger fall than

Yesterday was a blockbuster day for geopolitical news, thanks mainly to one man. Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will be reinstating the Iranian blockade, effective today. He also claimed that the US "will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World." This is exactly what Trump had considered unacceptable from the Iranian side, and

This was a consequential weekend in geopolitics. Strikes continued, with the US striking roughly 90 targets across Iran and Iran sending 10 ballistic missiles towards Jordan's Azraq airbase. Additionally, there was not the expected formal resumption of talks on the 11th following the week-long funeral of the previous Supreme Leader in Iran. Normally, we would expect these two facts to mean that the ceasefire has broken down completely and we are back to square one. However, t

In terms of geopolitics, the escalation continued for a second day, with the US launching fresh strikes on Iran and Iran once again targeting Gulf countries in an exchange of fire. Trump's rhetoric stayed hot throughout; he said he was no longer sure he wanted a deal, called Iran's leaders "sick," and described the whole thing as "a waste of time." On paper, these are exactly the kinds of comments that risk re-igniting the war and rendering the MOU useless. And yet the market

Yesterday, Trump was speaking at a NATO summit and, when asked about the ceasefire, declared that "it's over," saying "I don't want to deal with them anymore… They're scum," and later threatening "we're going to hit them hard tonight." All of this has come off the back of heavy strikes by the US overnight on Tuesday and was backed up by more strikes on Wednesday night. In a speech to NATO yesterday, Trump then said that he was not sure he wanted to make a deal with Iran's lea