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In terms of geopolitics, the most interesting development yesterday was the market's reaction to Operation Economic Outcast, which was not at all what you might have expected. Rather than pushing oil higher, the sanctions announcement has now sent Brent down almost 8% in the two sessions since it was made. There are two potential reasons for this. The first is that Pakistan's army chief concluded a one-day visit to Tehran, with reports suggesting he carried a proposal worked

Yesterday's main news was from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who formally announced "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran. This was a sweeping expansion of sanctions against Iran, designed to cut off any economic lifelines to the country from the outside world. The key part was the fact that sanctions extend not just to Iran, but to any country doing business with Iran. Bessent announced any country doing so will be "removed from the US dollar system". This part of th

In terms of geopolitics, the weekend was a quiet one, with no significant developments to report from the Middle East. Trump's "economic D-Day" threat against Iran still lacks any real detail, and oil finished last week close to its highs as a result, with the market seemingly settled on the view that this conflict has a while left to run and that the Strait of Hormuz is not reopening any time soon. In the absence of anything new, that leaves us with a market that spent all o

Yesterday, I wrote that the US Treasury's announcement to buy back bonds could backfire and further damage the already fragile confidence in the US economy. I described it as a sticking plaster on a gaping wound. Yesterday saw bond yields rise, pulling back over 60% of the move made on Wednesday with no sign of stopping; the sticking plaster has almost fallen off within one session. US30Y Bond Yields - 1D Wednesday's move was not because the buybacks had begun; it was a react

There were a number of news events yesterday, but there is only one place to start. The US Treasury yesterday announced plans to more than double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated government securities, targeting the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year portions of the curve. In other words, it will be buying back its own long-term debt. The change will take effect from the 9th of Sep and will run until the 4th of Nov at least, with the idea bei