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The most noteworthy news yesterday was the fallout from the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. The ceasefire itself had been largely defunct already, but the fact that the official date has now passed carries psychological significance. Both sides have said there are no current talks, and Iran is saying that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. We have also not had significant news of progress between Oman and Iran either, so we are currentl

After the tumultuousness of the markets over previous months, yesterday was comparatively a very quiet start to the week. We did not have any major news releases outside of the CAD CPI, and there were no real updates from the situation in the Middle East. Oil continued to rise even without developments in the Middle East, as the supply squeeze continues to push prices up. Brent is now up to $92.75, while US Oil is at $84.00, both at their highest point this month. Brent Crude

The weekend passed without escalation, outside of comments made by both Iran and the US towards each other and another ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman have not yet finalized their agreement on managing the Strait, damaging some of the optimism at the start of the month. Additionally, there has been escalated rhetoric from the US over the weekend - Secretary Bessent said Washington would impose "unprecedented economic measures" on Iran while maintaining th

The US PPI release was the main story yesterday, with core PPI m/m coming in soft at 0.2% against an expected 0.3%, while PPI m/m was 0% against an expected 0.2%. The main cause for this was a 3.1% fall in energy prices, as could have been expected since this period covered when oil was at its lowest last month. The effects of the print were more muted than we may have expected, in the forex market at least, potentially as markets had expected softer prints thanks to lower oi

The big news yesterday was the US CPI print, which, after the size of the buildup it received, fell exactly in line with expectations and ended up close to a non-event. Core y/y was 2.5% and 0.2% m/m, while CPI itself was 3.4% y/y and 0.1% m/m. Today we have the second part of the inflation picture, with the US PPI figures released. It may not significantly differ from expectations if CPI did not, but as it can tend to be more sensitive to energy prices it will be worth keepi