Daily Posts

Yesterday saw the release of June's CPI prints, which were the first to capture the falling oil prices after the MOU was signed in Iran last month. As expected, inflation fell, but markets were surprised by the size of the fall. CPI y/y fell to 3.5% against an expected 3.8%, CPI m/m was -0.4% against an expected -0.1%, Core CPI y/y was 2.6% against an expected 2.8%, and Core CPI m/m was 0.0% against an expected 0.2%. As a result, all measures of CPI showed a larger fall than

Yesterday was a blockbuster day for geopolitical news, thanks mainly to one man. Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will be reinstating the Iranian blockade, effective today. He also claimed that the US "will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World." This is exactly what Trump had considered unacceptable from the Iranian side, and

This was a consequential weekend in geopolitics. Strikes continued, with the US striking roughly 90 targets across Iran and Iran sending 10 ballistic missiles towards Jordan's Azraq airbase. Additionally, there was not the expected formal resumption of talks on the 11th following the week-long funeral of the previous Supreme Leader in Iran. Normally, we would expect these two facts to mean that the ceasefire has broken down completely and we are back to square one. However, t

In terms of geopolitics, the escalation continued for a second day, with the US launching fresh strikes on Iran and Iran once again targeting Gulf countries in an exchange of fire. Trump's rhetoric stayed hot throughout; he said he was no longer sure he wanted a deal, called Iran's leaders "sick," and described the whole thing as "a waste of time." On paper, these are exactly the kinds of comments that risk re-igniting the war and rendering the MOU useless. And yet the market

Yesterday, Trump was speaking at a NATO summit and, when asked about the ceasefire, declared that "it's over," saying "I don't want to deal with them anymore… They're scum," and later threatening "we're going to hit them hard tonight." All of this has come off the back of heavy strikes by the US overnight on Tuesday and was backed up by more strikes on Wednesday night. In a speech to NATO yesterday, Trump then said that he was not sure he wanted to make a deal with Iran's lea

Yesterday saw tensions flare once again between Iran and the US. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia accused the Iranians of targeting and striking oil tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with 3 tankers in total supposedly being attacked. In response, the US revoked the 60-day license permitting oil sales that was issued only a fortnight ago, then on Tuesday evening the US announced that it had begun a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran in retaliation. The threat l

Yesterday saw the markets reopen after the long weekend, but not a lot happened. After the Independence Day closure of the markets on Friday, markets reopened on Monday after a weekend of celebration in the US and a weekend of mourning in Iran. Talks between the two will not resume until the 11th of July, so the Middle East situation did not provide any news for the markets to get their teeth into. Markets are currently fixed on next week's CPI print, which will be the first

In terms of geopolitics, the past few days have been dominated by the dichotomy of celebration & mourning rather than negotiation. In Iran, the state funeral for Khamenei senior began on Friday and is expected to run for the week, while in the US the markets were closed on Friday for Independence Day weekend. As a result, the US-Iran talks have been paused, with both sides agreeing not to attack the other during the commemorations. The key point here is that this is a pause a

In terms of geopolitics, yesterday was a quiet day leading into the long weekend in the US. In Iran, they are holding the state funeral for Khamenei senior, who was killed at the start of the Iran conflict. The funeral has been delayed to coincide with the Independence Day celebrations in the US and is expected to be a 5-day spectacle. It is being framed in Iran as a victory parade, with Iran's leaders urging the public to attend the events. Outside of potentially US leadersh

In terms of geopolitics, there was not much movement between Iran and the US, with talks still being carried out through intermediaries, and the final plan for the management of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to be a sticking point. Oil, however, is flowing through the Strait at present, and oil prices are continuing to fall, with Brent Crude falling below $72 yesterday and US oil falling below $68 this morning. As oil prices continue to fall, optimism continues to rise for

The ceasefire continues to hold, and oil is now flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between the US and Iran are still grinding along slowly, but they are still struggling with the same issues as before. The key development from yesterday was that analysts are beginning to believe that we may be moving towards an oil surplus rather than a deficit. With the oil supplies that had been stagnant in the Strait during the war now released, all of that supply will hit the mar

The de-escalation from Monday held yesterday as there were no further hostilities between the US and Iran. The proposed meeting in Doha that Trump had announced, however, was not quite as advertised. There were no face-to-face talks, and only US intermediaries were actually in Doha yesterday. Talks are continuing, but they are doing so through mediators, and current discussions do not include the highest-level officials. Both sides are still posturing, with Iran claiming the

Over the weekend, we saw further hostilities between the US and Iran, with the US striking military targets after the tanker attack by Iran on Friday. Trump even posted a message that the US may have to "complete the job," causing some fears that the ceasefire may break down. However, the market did not seem overly concerned, and by Monday morning, de-escalation had returned, and both sides had agreed to meet in Doha tomorrow, and the tit-for-tat attacks have ceased. The outc

Yesterday's main news was the PCE report from the US, which came in largely as expected and was almost a non-event in the end. The only figure that was not as expected was the US PCE m/m figure, which came in at 0.4% instead of 0.5%, a slightly dovish figure. Outside of the PCE release, there was news from the Middle East that Iran had attacked a Singaporean tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. There was no reported damage and no casualties. The market continued to see this sort o

Yesterday was a relatively quiet day, as markets prepared themselves for the PCE figures released today from the US. The main stories were with regards to oil & US treasury yields, plus the blowout results reported after close from Micron (which will be covered later). Oil continued its post-Iran war fall and is now largely back to pre-war levels, with Brent Crude trading at $74 and US Oil at $70. The result of this was that we saw US treasury yields fall further from their r

The most significant news of the day yesterday was the significant AI selloff in stock markets that began in Korea. In terms of geopolitics, the US and Iran continue to negotiate, though the tone yesterday was a little more combative, with Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to its previous state before the war." Markets are seeing this as just another negotiating tactic, however, and the rhetoric yesterday did not cause significant moves. The market remains f

After the back and forth over the weekend, with threats coming from both sides, Monday's talks in Switzerland seemed to bring positive outcomes. Iran cited 'good progress', while US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US had authorized Iranian oil sales through to the end of August. There now seems to be a clear roadmap on the way to a deal at the end of the 60-day period, something the markets had been betting on throughout. In the UK, there continues to be fallout from

The weekend saw a rocky start to negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. At one point, Iran publicly walked out of the talks as reports continued to emerge of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, after a ceasefire was initially announced between the two on Friday. Iran also claimed on Saturday to have closed the Strait of Hormuz again after the strikes. This was disputed by the US, however, and tracking data seemed to show ships still moving through the Strait. Israel mai

In terms of geopolitics, compared to previous days in the past few months, yesterday was a relatively quiet day. There was some general chatter surrounding the terms of the US/Iran peace deal, but nothing significant that altered the terms already agreed upon. The remaining stumbling block is Israel's actions in Lebanon, whether Israel will agree to cease hostilities there to fully put an end to this period of conflict. Most major leaders have now left France after the G7 sum

Yesterday saw the G7 summit in France, where Trump signed the MOU with Iran a day early. The text of the deal has now also been released, with the key points below - An end to conflict on all fronts - The text in the deal states the 'US, Iran and all allies' and says conflict will end on 'all fronts'. This by definition will include Lebanon. Respect for Internal Affairs - Both have agreed that neither country will interfere with the other's internal affairs. An extendable 60-