Daily Posts

Forex Yesterday saw what could turn out to be the most significant development since the start of the Iran War, with news breaking that the US and Iran were closing in on agreeing to a one-page 'Memorandum Of Understanding'. This would bring an end to hostilities and trigger a 30-day period to resolve the nuclear issue. The key point of note here is that the US position has changed. The US has consistently asserted that nuclear disarmament must be agreed to at the same time a

Forex The most important news overnight was the announcement from Trump that 'Project Freedom' has been paused to see whether an agreement can be reached with Iran. The US naval blockade is still in place, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio has advised the active military phase is now over. The US is now in a defensive position and will not shoot unless shot at first. Iran, on the other hand, was defiant but did not escalate, while their Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Arag

Geo-Politics The Bank Holiday weekend proved to be a volatile one, with a number of developments in the Iran conflict. There were reports of an Iranian attack on US ships, with rumors swirling around as to whether they were real or fabricated. Trump then announced on Sunday 'Project Freedom', where stranded commercial ships would be guided through the Strait of Hormuz through a narrow corridor, supported by US naval vessels. This was deemed a ceasefire violation by the Irania

Forex Yesterday saw wild swings in both the JPY and the CHF, along with a weakening USD. The main geopolitical news was from the USA, where reports emerged that Trump had been briefed on new military options for action in Iran, putting an already fragile ceasefire at risk. Interestingly, even with this news, oil fell on the day. There does not seem to be one clear factor causing this, but the consensus seems to be that geopolitical risk is already priced in and the market is

Forex There were a number of news events affecting markets yesterday, with possibly the largest being the hardening of the US position on Iran. Reports cited US officials who confirmed that Trump told aides to prepare for a longer blockade, with it staying in effect until a deal is reached with Iran that includes the nuclear question. This marked a change from previous sentiment when a deal was hoped to be reached and implied the conflict could last longer than many had hoped

Forex Yesterday saw two major news points. The first was news that Trump was not happy with the initial proposal from Iran to shelve the nuclear issue during talks, and that he has instructed his advisers to prepare for a longer blockade. We also then saw the shock news of the day, with the UAE withdrawing from OPEC. In the short term, the news from the US is far more impactful, but in the longer term, the UAE being free from OPEC oil supply restrictions will have a significa

Forex There was cautious optimism yesterday on the back of the Iranian proposition to the USA, which was pared slightly by some of the lukewarm responses from some US politicians. The White House confirmed Trump discussed the offer in the Situation Room, but no outcome has been made public as of yet. It does seem unlikely, however, that a proposal would be accepted that would leave the nuclear discussion off the table, as this was a key factor behind the beginnings of the con

Forex We saw a hugely significant development overnight, with news that Iran has given the US a new proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, then delaying negotiations around the nuclear question to a later date. This came after a rollercoaster Friday, where the Iranian delegation arrived in Pakistan only to hear that the US had canceled their team's trip before take-off. The nuclear issue has been the most significant sticking point in the negotiations, so the

Forex There was no diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East yesterday, with both sides becoming more entrenched in their positions as time goes on. Trump restated there is no deadline on the ceasefire extension, which removes time pressure but also removes any incentive to move quickly. The day saw the USD gain some ground on the back of the uncertainty, as well as due to the rise in oil prices for the third consecutive day. The dollar was also boosted by strong manufacturi

Forex Yesterday was another day of contradictions, as always with the focus squarely on Iran. The ceasefire was extended, which gave a boost to risk-on currencies, but negotiations did not restart and the Strait of Hormuz saw blockades continue. There has not been a timeframe placed on the ceasefire extension, so we may not see deadline day uncertainty in the markets in the same way we saw this week. The US and Iran are currently in a standoff; Iran says they will not negotia

Forex Yesterday was a topsy-turvy day in the markets, owing entirely to the continued uncertainty in the Middle East. With the ceasefire deadline looming, there was initial negativity when it emerged Iran would not be in Pakistan on Tuesday for talks and VP Vance canceled his trip. Then we received word there may be some progress, and Trump released a message to advise there will be an extension to a ceasefire while talks continue. While this calmed the uncertainty somewhat,

Forex The market was uncertain yesterday, with mixed moves for almost all currencies. The USD pulled back a little of its previous losses on weekend gaps before the market filled some of these, echoing the oil markets that gapped higher over the weekend before falling away a little during the day. The CAD saw its CPI numbers released lower than expected yesterday, whilst NZD's CPI figures overnight were slightly above expectations. Both had some effect on their respective cur

Forex On Friday, Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz was open, pushing the DXY to a seven-week low, before the realization that the reopening was only partial pulled back some of that move. Oil fell to less than $80 per barrel at that time, before recovering to just under $88 by Monday morning. This is the story for most of the USD pairs: a strong move against the Dollar on Friday before a retracement leading to Monday's open. Any future move is, at the moment, almost entire

Forex The initial euphoria of the ceasefire and Trump's 'over soon' comments wore off a little yesterday, with currency markets mixed in anticipation of an extension of the 2-week ceasefire due to end on the 22nd of Apr. Markets are in a wait-and-see pattern for the outcome of the talks, which should be a good strategy to follow over what could be a pivotal weekend. The USD recovered some of its losses on the week, but remains sensitive to news coming from Iran and the Middle

A positive day in the markets for risk-on assets overall yesterday, which seems to be mainly driven by traders pricing in the end of the war in Iran. Forex Yesterday saw a continuation of the slide in the US Dollar and a move away from safe havens, backed by a sentiment shift towards the Iran war being nearly over. While comments on social media from Trump back this up, the main driver behind the shift seems to come from rumors of an agreement in principle to extend the cease