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Yesterday was a quiet day in almost all markets. Oil continued to rise, but at a slower pace than Monday, with Brent now at $91.80 and US Oil now at $82.50. We heard the normal bluster from both Iran and the USA, with both sides saying they were in control and that the other side needed to give something up. We did hear from Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, who told Bloomberg that "things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or a deal," once again lea

There were developments in the Middle East yesterday. Whilst the Iran-Oman deal is reportedly in its final stages, Iran has said it will not fully reopen the strait until they receive compensation from the US for the damage caused during the war. This prompted, unsurprisingly, a strong reaction from Trump, who asked for compensation from Iran for their actions over the last 50 years. The market has seen this as a sign that the deal with Oman will not be enough to fully open t

The most important news from Friday was the NFP report, which reported a loss of 23k jobs against an expected gain of 85k for the month. On top of this, the last two months were also revised downwards, making the data release even weaker. We then also had the unemployment rate data release, which was 4.1% against an expected 4.2%, but the drop-off was due to people leaving the workforce rather than more people being employed, and so this was not the positive number it would h

In terms of geopolitics, the picture remains largely unchanged, with the agreement between Iran and Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz still in place but the implementation details yet to be clarified. That uncertainty was enough to see oil rise yesterday, as investors turned cautious on whether the deal will actually translate into normal flows through the waterway any time soon. It is a useful reminder that an agreement in principle and barrels actually m

Yesterday, Iran announced that it had reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, as had been expected. This looks to have been largely priced in already, though, as oil actually rose slightly on the day. However, the rise could also have been caused by reports that the Houthis have claimed a strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. The downside for oil does still seem to be capped at the moment, thanks to threats to supply fr