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The calm did not last. After three days without strikes had convinced the market a genuine de-escalation was underway, the fighting resumed. Iran mounted what has been described as a surprise attack, and the US responded with renewed strikes, with further action taken in Iraq by both the US and the Saudis to risk a further escalation in the region. The pause that markets had been hoping was the beginning of the end, has instead proven to be just another lull in a conflict tha

In terms of geopolitics, the pause in fighting held for a second day, with the US and Iran refraining from any further strikes as work continues on restarting negotiations to end the war. The mediation effort, led by Pakistan and reportedly backed by China, remains the driving force behind the de-escalation. After nearly two weeks of escalation, two consecutive days of calm is the first genuine stretch we have seen, and the market is now treating this as a real de-escalation

In terms of geopolitics, the weekend brought the first sign of a de-escalation in over two weeks. For the first time in fourteen days, the US did not announce any new strikes on Iran, with the campaign now described as being "on hold" while talks over the future of the Strait of Hormuz take place. This morning that pause has been made official, and markets have reacted accordingly. The push seems to have come from a fresh round of mediation led by Pakistan and reportedly back

Oil prices skyrocketed yesterday, as there were no signs of a reduction in tensions in Iran, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait became the second key waterway to have restrictions imposed on it by hostile forces. There has been no news of developments in the supposed ceasefire that was reported at the start of the week. Markets are seeing this as evidence that any talks that were taking place have stalled, and the brief window of optimism has now all but disappeared. Brent Crude Oi

US strikes on Iran continued for a 12th consecutive night, as oil continued to rise in price throughout the day. There were also reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian ships in the Red Sea, after the Iranian-backed group announced a 'maritime embargo' against Saudi Arabia and declared the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. There were no new reports of discussions over a truce or a ceasefire, meaning either talks are still going on behind closed doors or that it