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Yesterday, we saw concrete reports that mediators are working on bringing the US and Iran back to the negotiating table, under a 10-day truce aimed at securing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. These were more concrete reports than before and gave markets hope for a cessation of hostilities soon. This was reported amid the backdrop of an 11th straight night of US airstrikes in Iran, further increasing oil prices, with Brent up 2% yesterday to $88.85 and US oil up

Yesterday seemingly saw all parts of this Iran conflict play out in just one day. We began the day taking in the threats from the weekend and another night of US strikes on Iran, with markets seemingly trying to work out where to go from there. Then around noon UK time, we heard from an Iranian source that a proposal had been made by mediators for a cessation of strikes and a call to move back to a pre-July 9th stance when the MOU was still in effect. Markets rallied on the p

The strikes by the US continued over the weekend, with the most recent volley of strikes the most intense yet after 3 US service members were confirmed to be killed over the weekend. The strikes have now moved to also targeting infrastructure as well as military targets, with Trump giving authority to "unleash hell" after the American deaths. To add to this, the Iranians have now officially and formally suspended their commitments to the June MOU, with Iran's Supreme Leader n

Yesterday was a day when markets struggled once again, as markets looked to future inflation concerns despite the positive inflation figures from earlier in the week. In Iran, strikes continued once again as oil stayed at its one-month highs. Today is the OFAC's wind-down deadline for selling Iranian oil, so as of now, oil supply is further restricted and oil prices are subject to even more supply-side pressure. Trump's threat to attack Iranian infrastructure looms over the w

Yesterday saw the second set of inflation figures due to be released this week, with the US PPI data. The PPI y/y came in at 5.5% against an expected 6.2%, PPI m/m was -0.3% against an expected 0.0%, Core PPI y/y was 4.7% against an expected 5.1%, and Core PPI m/m was 0.2% against an expected 0.3%. Once again, we saw lower than expected figures across the board, but as we will dive into, markets did not move much. This is in large part due to the geopolitics around Iran, wher