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Yesterday saw the main event, where the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected. The real market-moving news, however, was the forward guidance and the dot-plot that went with the decision. The decision to raise rates was unanimous, with 16 of the 18 participants also expecting at least one more rate hike this year. Four expected two rate hikes, whilst the majority expected only one. An interesting thing to note, however, and a point that has affected the precious meta

The big day is here, as later on we hear from the Fed with regards to this month's interest rate figures. Crucially, we will also see the updated dot-plot for future rate expectations. Considering we are at a 93% chance of a rate hike, the dot-plot and future guidance are likely to be the main market movers for the day. Whether we get a hawkish rate hike, with expectations of future hikes, or a dovish hike where this is a one-and-done move for now, will significantly affect m

As we head into the FOMC announcement tomorrow, there were two main stories yesterday of note that will likely have an effect on the decision tomorrow. First of all, we saw long-term US yields continue to rise despite the efforts of the US Treasury. The 10y yield rose significantly last week, and yesterday passed 5% for the first time since October 2023, when it touched this level intra-day. The yields have passed 5% again this morning; the last time we had a close above this

The weekend was a relatively quiet one from a geopolitical perspective, but we did have a few things to note with regards to the Middle East conflicts. A vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, causing a fire onboard, so we are still seeing attacks on shipping traffic in the area. We also heard a senior government official confirm that there are no current talks taking place between the US and Iran, firming up the market expectation that the war is not close to b

The main event today was the US CPI print, the final piece of data before the FOMC meets next week, and like yesterday's PPI it came in mixed with a hawkish element buried inside it. Core CPI m/m was the hot one at 0.3% against an expected 0.2%, it is worth noting that this is the figure the Fed watches most closely. Elsewhere it was steadier, with CPI m/m in line at 0.4%, CPI y/y in line and unchanged at 3.4%, and Core CPI y/y in line at 2.4%, which was actually down from 2.