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Yesterday, Trump was speaking at a NATO summit and, when asked about the ceasefire, declared that "it's over," saying "I don't want to deal with them anymore… They're scum," and later threatening "we're going to hit them hard tonight." All of this has come off the back of heavy strikes by the US overnight on Tuesday and was backed up by more strikes on Wednesday night. In a speech to NATO yesterday, Trump then said that he was not sure he wanted to make a deal with Iran's lea

Yesterday saw tensions flare once again between Iran and the US. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia accused the Iranians of targeting and striking oil tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with 3 tankers in total supposedly being attacked. In response, the US revoked the 60-day license permitting oil sales that was issued only a fortnight ago, then on Tuesday evening the US announced that it had begun a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran in retaliation. The threat l

Yesterday saw the markets reopen after the long weekend, but not a lot happened. After the Independence Day closure of the markets on Friday, markets reopened on Monday after a weekend of celebration in the US and a weekend of mourning in Iran. Talks between the two will not resume until the 11th of July, so the Middle East situation did not provide any news for the markets to get their teeth into. Markets are currently fixed on next week's CPI print, which will be the first

In terms of geopolitics, the past few days have been dominated by the dichotomy of celebration & mourning rather than negotiation. In Iran, the state funeral for Khamenei senior began on Friday and is expected to run for the week, while in the US the markets were closed on Friday for Independence Day weekend. As a result, the US-Iran talks have been paused, with both sides agreeing not to attack the other during the commemorations. The key point here is that this is a pause a

In terms of geopolitics, yesterday was a quiet day leading into the long weekend in the US. In Iran, they are holding the state funeral for Khamenei senior, who was killed at the start of the Iran conflict. The funeral has been delayed to coincide with the Independence Day celebrations in the US and is expected to be a 5-day spectacle. It is being framed in Iran as a victory parade, with Iran's leaders urging the public to attend the events. Outside of potentially US leadersh