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Geopolitics Yesterday was a confusing day with regards to the Iran War. Early in the day, we began to hear positive news, with word of a possible temporary US waiver on Iran oil sanctions and then an Iranian source claiming the US has shown flexibility in ongoing discussions. However, we then heard from the US that Iran's new offer was insufficient and risked a resumption of hostilities. We learned the rumors about raising oil sanctions were false and finally heard from Trump

Geopolitics The Trump-Xi summit ended on Friday with both sides making positive noises, but seemingly with not much of note to announce. We heard claims from the US that China would be helping with Iran and would not supply military equipment, but this was notably absent from any Chinese remarks on the talks. The implication being that nothing has been formally agreed on the subject, which gave the market nothing but uncertainty. Later on Friday, Trump's rhetoric hardened in

Forex When it comes to Forex yesterday, the main news was that there was no news, or at least no significant updates coming from the first day of the Trump-Xi meeting. Trump was typically positive about the talks' progress without anything meaningful to show for it as of yet. China expressed 'interest' in buying more US oil to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while both agreed that the Strait should be open. There were no commitments, though, and both sides have e

Forex President Trump arrived in Beijing yesterday ahead of the summit with President Xi, with the world focused on the outcome. Talks are likely to be centered around Iran, Taiwan, trade, and AI. Xi does have significant leverage in the meeting; China is Iran's largest trade partner for oil, meaning it could be a strong bargaining chip in the negotiations around a permanent end to the war. Markets are eagerly anticipating any news or leaks from the summit and how it could af

Forex Yesterday saw market sentiment towards Iran move away from confidence and back towards concern about military re-escalation, with reports emerging that Trump is considering restarting combat operations and the President's own social media message that the ceasefire is on 'life support'. This makes the Trump-Xi meeting, which is due to begin today, even more significant. China has significant leverage over Iran as one of its largest oil customers. Could the rumors of res