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Geopolitics Tuesday did not bring a breakthrough in talks, and the deal between the US and Iran remains in discussions. The main talking points remain the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, which have not changed since the beginning of the negotiations. The markets are still reading this as a delay in getting the deal signed, rather than increased uncertainty that the deal may not be signed. This keeps the asymmetric risk between a deal and a breakdown the case; a m

Geopolitics There was no deal announced yesterday, but there did seem to be some signs of slow progress. Trump reportedly requested changes to the draft MoU, including changes related to the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of enriched uranium. The key implication here is that the text was not rejected outright by Trump, but instead amended - the deal is being refined, not thrown out. The hope is that this means we are edging closer to an agreement between the two parties, bu

Geopolitics There was no deal signed over the weekend, despite the news we had last week that an MoU had been reached. Trump had a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House on Friday, but came out of it without announcing a final decision despite hinting otherwise beforehand. On Truth Social, he then demanded that Iran must agree to never have a nuclear weapon, as well as that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted traffic. The markets have lar

Geopolitics Yesterday was a perfect illustration of the contradictions we have seen over the past few weeks - genuine diplomatic progress and military escalation within the same 24 hours. News broke yesterday that a tentative deal had been agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and to launch talks on Iran's nuclear program. This is now with President Trump, who has not yet signed off on the deal, noting that he would like a few days to think about it. It has also been note

Geopolitics There were strikes overnight from the US on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas, a port city on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC then claimed that they had struck a US air base early this morning, though the location was not disclosed. These actions are a meaningful escalation and a continuation from the US strike on Monday, putting the ceasefire and peace negotiations under serious threat. The strikes come after comments from Trump yesterday that Iran is "runnin