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The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is still due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The one notable news item on the deal is that it will allow oil to be exported from Tehran as soon as the deal is signed, giving Iran extra incentive to sign and putting some immediate downward pressure on oil prices. The crack in the armour for optimism around the deal seems to be Lebanon. Israeli officials yesterday said troops would remain in Lebanon and stated 'Trump's agreement does

Yesterday saw further confirmation of the deal between the US and Iran, with the deal set to be formally signed on Friday in Switzerland. The broad details are reported to be a 60-day agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, halt hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, release around $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and waive oil sanctions. Further nuclear discussions will then follow later. The market is treating the deal as done, with the reaction over the weekend a

Geopolitics After three and a half months of fighting and countless false dawns during negotiations, it was announced over the weekend that a deal has been reached between the US and Iran. This has been confirmed by President Trump, by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and by the Pakistani PM Sharif, who had been mediating the discussions. The deal is set to be formally signed on the 19th of June and is reported to include Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz wit

Geopolitics What a difference a day makes. At the start of the day yesterday, we were expecting further escalation in Iran. We then had a social media post from Donald Trump where he advised he would be hitting Iran "very hard tonight" and that the US would be taking Kharg Island, a key facility that 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through. This most likely would have involved boots on the ground and would have been a significant escalation. Markets were preparing themselves f

Geopolitics Yesterday saw further escalation in Iran that proved to be the dominant driver for the day. The US struck military targets in Iran as Trump warned that Iran will "pay the price" for not agreeing to a peace deal sooner. This was a markedly different tone from some previous comments, especially when followed up with action by the US military. The Iranians countered the strikes with their own, further jeopardizing what is still technically a ceasefire between the two