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The ceasefire continues to hold, and oil is now flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between the US and Iran are still grinding along slowly, but they are still struggling with the same issues as before. The key development from yesterday was that analysts are beginning to believe that we may be moving towards an oil surplus rather than a deficit. With the oil supplies that had been stagnant in the Strait during the war now released, all of that supply will hit the mar

The de-escalation from Monday held yesterday as there were no further hostilities between the US and Iran. The proposed meeting in Doha that Trump had announced, however, was not quite as advertised. There were no face-to-face talks, and only US intermediaries were actually in Doha yesterday. Talks are continuing, but they are doing so through mediators, and current discussions do not include the highest-level officials. Both sides are still posturing, with Iran claiming the

Over the weekend, we saw further hostilities between the US and Iran, with the US striking military targets after the tanker attack by Iran on Friday. Trump even posted a message that the US may have to "complete the job," causing some fears that the ceasefire may break down. However, the market did not seem overly concerned, and by Monday morning, de-escalation had returned, and both sides had agreed to meet in Doha tomorrow, and the tit-for-tat attacks have ceased. The outc

Yesterday's main news was the PCE report from the US, which came in largely as expected and was almost a non-event in the end. The only figure that was not as expected was the US PCE m/m figure, which came in at 0.4% instead of 0.5%, a slightly dovish figure. Outside of the PCE release, there was news from the Middle East that Iran had attacked a Singaporean tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. There was no reported damage and no casualties. The market continued to see this sort o

Yesterday was a relatively quiet day, as markets prepared themselves for the PCE figures released today from the US. The main stories were with regards to oil & US treasury yields, plus the blowout results reported after close from Micron (which will be covered later). Oil continued its post-Iran war fall and is now largely back to pre-war levels, with Brent Crude trading at $74 and US Oil at $70. The result of this was that we saw US treasury yields fall further from their r