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Geo-Politics The Bank Holiday weekend proved to be a volatile one, with a number of developments in the Iran conflict. There were reports of an Iranian attack on US ships, with rumors swirling around as to whether they were real or fabricated. Trump then announced on Sunday 'Project Freedom', where stranded commercial ships would be guided through the Strait of Hormuz through a narrow corridor, supported by US naval vessels. This was deemed a ceasefire violation by the Irania

Forex Yesterday saw wild swings in both the JPY and the CHF, along with a weakening USD. The main geopolitical news was from the USA, where reports emerged that Trump had been briefed on new military options for action in Iran, putting an already fragile ceasefire at risk. Interestingly, even with this news, oil fell on the day. There does not seem to be one clear factor causing this, but the consensus seems to be that geopolitical risk is already priced in and the market is

Forex There were a number of news events affecting markets yesterday, with possibly the largest being the hardening of the US position on Iran. Reports cited US officials who confirmed that Trump told aides to prepare for a longer blockade, with it staying in effect until a deal is reached with Iran that includes the nuclear question. This marked a change from previous sentiment when a deal was hoped to be reached and implied the conflict could last longer than many had hoped

Forex Yesterday saw two major news points. The first was news that Trump was not happy with the initial proposal from Iran to shelve the nuclear issue during talks, and that he has instructed his advisers to prepare for a longer blockade. We also then saw the shock news of the day, with the UAE withdrawing from OPEC. In the short term, the news from the US is far more impactful, but in the longer term, the UAE being free from OPEC oil supply restrictions will have a significa

Forex There was cautious optimism yesterday on the back of the Iranian proposition to the USA, which was pared slightly by some of the lukewarm responses from some US politicians. The White House confirmed Trump discussed the offer in the Situation Room, but no outcome has been made public as of yet. It does seem unlikely, however, that a proposal would be accepted that would leave the nuclear discussion off the table, as this was a key factor behind the beginnings of the con