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Geopolitics After Trump's comments yesterday that the Gulf states had asked him to postpone a strike on Iran, we have seen little progress today beyond this. There were reports that mediators had seen no significant changes in the stances of either party during peace talks, with both sides sticking to their previously established red lines that are preventing an agreement from being reached. There is the possibility of renewed strikes as early as next week if we still do not

Geopolitics Yesterday was a confusing day with regards to the Iran War. Early in the day, we began to hear positive news, with word of a possible temporary US waiver on Iran oil sanctions and then an Iranian source claiming the US has shown flexibility in ongoing discussions. However, we then heard from the US that Iran's new offer was insufficient and risked a resumption of hostilities. We learned the rumors about raising oil sanctions were false and finally heard from Trump

Geopolitics The Trump-Xi summit ended on Friday with both sides making positive noises, but seemingly with not much of note to announce. We heard claims from the US that China would be helping with Iran and would not supply military equipment, but this was notably absent from any Chinese remarks on the talks. The implication being that nothing has been formally agreed on the subject, which gave the market nothing but uncertainty. Later on Friday, Trump's rhetoric hardened in

Forex When it comes to Forex yesterday, the main news was that there was no news, or at least no significant updates coming from the first day of the Trump-Xi meeting. Trump was typically positive about the talks' progress without anything meaningful to show for it as of yet. China expressed 'interest' in buying more US oil to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while both agreed that the Strait should be open. There were no commitments, though, and both sides have e

Forex President Trump arrived in Beijing yesterday ahead of the summit with President Xi, with the world focused on the outcome. Talks are likely to be centered around Iran, Taiwan, trade, and AI. Xi does have significant leverage in the meeting; China is Iran's largest trade partner for oil, meaning it could be a strong bargaining chip in the negotiations around a permanent end to the war. Markets are eagerly anticipating any news or leaks from the summit and how it could af

Forex Yesterday saw market sentiment towards Iran move away from confidence and back towards concern about military re-escalation, with reports emerging that Trump is considering restarting combat operations and the President's own social media message that the ceasefire is on 'life support'. This makes the Trump-Xi meeting, which is due to begin today, even more significant. China has significant leverage over Iran as one of its largest oil customers. Could the rumors of res

Forex Yesterday saw an unusually quiet day for recent times, with no real news coming out of the US-Iran conflict. Trump made some comments about the ceasefire being on shaky foundations, but this was already priced into the market and so did not have a significant effect. All eyes seem to be focused on the Trump & Xi meeting later this week, the outcome of which could shape the conflict moving forward. China is Iran's largest oil consumer, meaning Xi has significant leverage

Forex As has been the case since the start of the war, the key news over the weekend has been from the Middle East. Iran has responded to the US proposal, and Trump has posted on social media that their response is 'totally unacceptable' - there are reports that Iran's proposal demanded recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damages, and notably did not mention the nuclear issue. Both sides seem entrenched in their positions; both seem to w

Forex The details of the potential agreement between the US and Iran were fleshed out a lot more yesterday and gave more information to the markets about what to expect moving forward should a deal be reached. The agreement would create a 30-day window for detailed negotiations on opening the strait, Iran's nuclear program, and lifting US sanctions. One of the key changes seems to be a softening stance from both sides on some parts of a deal involving Iran's nuclear program,

Forex Yesterday saw what could turn out to be the most significant development since the start of the Iran War, with news breaking that the US and Iran were closing in on agreeing to a one-page 'Memorandum Of Understanding'. This would bring an end to hostilities and trigger a 30-day period to resolve the nuclear issue. The key point of note here is that the US position has changed. The US has consistently asserted that nuclear disarmament must be agreed to at the same time a

Forex The most important news overnight was the announcement from Trump that 'Project Freedom' has been paused to see whether an agreement can be reached with Iran. The US naval blockade is still in place, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio has advised the active military phase is now over. The US is now in a defensive position and will not shoot unless shot at first. Iran, on the other hand, was defiant but did not escalate, while their Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Arag

Geo-Politics The Bank Holiday weekend proved to be a volatile one, with a number of developments in the Iran conflict. There were reports of an Iranian attack on US ships, with rumors swirling around as to whether they were real or fabricated. Trump then announced on Sunday 'Project Freedom', where stranded commercial ships would be guided through the Strait of Hormuz through a narrow corridor, supported by US naval vessels. This was deemed a ceasefire violation by the Irania

Forex Yesterday saw wild swings in both the JPY and the CHF, along with a weakening USD. The main geopolitical news was from the USA, where reports emerged that Trump had been briefed on new military options for action in Iran, putting an already fragile ceasefire at risk. Interestingly, even with this news, oil fell on the day. There does not seem to be one clear factor causing this, but the consensus seems to be that geopolitical risk is already priced in and the market is

Forex There were a number of news events affecting markets yesterday, with possibly the largest being the hardening of the US position on Iran. Reports cited US officials who confirmed that Trump told aides to prepare for a longer blockade, with it staying in effect until a deal is reached with Iran that includes the nuclear question. This marked a change from previous sentiment when a deal was hoped to be reached and implied the conflict could last longer than many had hoped

Forex Yesterday saw two major news points. The first was news that Trump was not happy with the initial proposal from Iran to shelve the nuclear issue during talks, and that he has instructed his advisers to prepare for a longer blockade. We also then saw the shock news of the day, with the UAE withdrawing from OPEC. In the short term, the news from the US is far more impactful, but in the longer term, the UAE being free from OPEC oil supply restrictions will have a significa

Forex There was cautious optimism yesterday on the back of the Iranian proposition to the USA, which was pared slightly by some of the lukewarm responses from some US politicians. The White House confirmed Trump discussed the offer in the Situation Room, but no outcome has been made public as of yet. It does seem unlikely, however, that a proposal would be accepted that would leave the nuclear discussion off the table, as this was a key factor behind the beginnings of the con

Forex We saw a hugely significant development overnight, with news that Iran has given the US a new proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, then delaying negotiations around the nuclear question to a later date. This came after a rollercoaster Friday, where the Iranian delegation arrived in Pakistan only to hear that the US had canceled their team's trip before take-off. The nuclear issue has been the most significant sticking point in the negotiations, so the

Forex There was no diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East yesterday, with both sides becoming more entrenched in their positions as time goes on. Trump restated there is no deadline on the ceasefire extension, which removes time pressure but also removes any incentive to move quickly. The day saw the USD gain some ground on the back of the uncertainty, as well as due to the rise in oil prices for the third consecutive day. The dollar was also boosted by strong manufacturi

Forex Yesterday was another day of contradictions, as always with the focus squarely on Iran. The ceasefire was extended, which gave a boost to risk-on currencies, but negotiations did not restart and the Strait of Hormuz saw blockades continue. There has not been a timeframe placed on the ceasefire extension, so we may not see deadline day uncertainty in the markets in the same way we saw this week. The US and Iran are currently in a standoff; Iran says they will not negotia

Forex Yesterday was a topsy-turvy day in the markets, owing entirely to the continued uncertainty in the Middle East. With the ceasefire deadline looming, there was initial negativity when it emerged Iran would not be in Pakistan on Tuesday for talks and VP Vance canceled his trip. Then we received word there may be some progress, and Trump released a message to advise there will be an extension to a ceasefire while talks continue. While this calmed the uncertainty somewhat,